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-   -   A few days ago an RV service advisor told me..... (https://www.irv2.com/forums/f59/a-few-days-ago-an-rv-service-advisor-told-me-540415.html)

SKP Kirk 06-10-2021 06:54 AM

Quote:

The latest projection shows total 2021 RV shipments ranging between 565,848 and 586,281 units with the most likely year-end total being 576,065 units. That total would represent a 33.8% increase over the 2020 year-end total of 430,412 units.
RV RoadSigns Quarterly Forecast | RVIA

Marine359 06-10-2021 07:19 AM

I’m no economic genius, I repeat, I’m no economic genius, but:

Prices for new Rvs will not go down. Discounting will increase, which may translate to slightly lower purchase prices when supply and demand are back in balance. We are in a global inflationary spiral. Therefore the cost (not purchase price) of building new Rvs must continue to rise. Manufacturers will suffer as late model RVs start hitting the market. They’ve lived through boom and bust many times, so they will adjust accordingly.

Some parts of the market will become stable because economic cycles have a lesser affect on them. That would be: high end/DP MH (over $200k msrp), full-time 5th wheel (over $50k msrp), and low end TT (under $35k msrp). These are the segments that continued to sell during the last economic downturn. Class B, B+, Class C, and low end gas Class A will suffer the most. That’s the sweet spot for the current boom because many pre-retirement people finance the purchase.

You can bet on it because I’m no economic genius.

dfuelman 06-10-2021 08:56 AM

Have you checked the NADA on your coach lately? Mine has gone up $9K since I purchased it one year ago. It literally is worth more now than what I paid for it. How often does that happen with an RV?

arcaguy 06-10-2021 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by egwilly (Post 5785366)
That's what my crystal ball showed me today. ;)

Crystal balls are good but what did your Magic 8 Ball tell you? That will be the real answer!

egwilly 06-11-2021 08:09 AM

Magic 8 Ball! LOL! You are dating yourself. :laugh:

It did say "maybe"

Spidergawd 06-11-2021 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by arcaguy (Post 5785861)
Crystal balls are good but what did your Magic 8 Ball tell you? That will be the real answer!

"Ask again later"

hikerjohn66 06-13-2021 03:40 PM

Sales Frenzy Predictons
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Fogbelly (Post 5783934)
A few days ago an RV service advisor told me that the corporate rep expects the sales frenzy to continue for 2-3 years.

I was astonished......2-3 years? Hard for me to believe.



I am not sure about claims of a sales frenzy for 2-3 years either. It could just be wishful thinking on the part of the industry.

My observations of RV'ers over the 20 years I have been RV'ing myself is that many people who purchase them discover, after a few uses, that the experience turned out not to be the living or vacationing experience they had envisioned or wanted. So they end up putting their RVs back on the market.

There are a number of reasons. For one, RV'ing is not as easy and trouble free as the salesmen and the glamorous adds might have lead them to believe. That's especially true if they are not handy at fixing things or don't like to pay thousands of dollars to have professionals fix them. RVs are very complex and things on them break a lot. Their reliability is no where near that of their automobiles which they can drive for years with little maintenance.

Also, the campground experience may not be what they expected.
Most are not as luxurious as hotel and motels and it's a lot more work having to pull in and hookup all the stuff at every stop; getting poop on you and tromping around in the dirt.

I suspect that pandemic drove a lot of people to purchase RVs thinking they could avoid crowds in motels, hotels and restaurants and could save a lot on travel. The aggressive RV advertising also is very alluring.

So... I am expecting to see a lot of used RVs showing up on the market as this pandemic winds down over the next year or so from those hapless RV purchasers who found that RV'ing has not turned out to be their style.

kwahl1 06-13-2021 04:26 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Surviving!

Ask Byron 06-13-2021 04:27 PM

I will give you the cat and dog report. As reported on one real estate site I am a member of. Now that Covid has retracted some all the people that acquired shelter animals are now returning them. They are cramping their life style. The shelters are overcrowded now.
Soooo sit back and we will see a glut of RV for sale. These arrogant campground owners that are raising their prices will be giving away free TV's just to get us to camp.

garyb1st 06-13-2021 04:30 PM

If memory serves, before the current boom, many were concerned that because of the Covid RVing would decline. It did the just opposite and with all the new RVers, RVing has lost some of its appeal. At least it did for me. The DW thinks we need to adjust our travel style. Not looking forward to a future where reservations need to be made months ahead of time. Hopefully things will equalize in the coming months and we'll get back to normal.

garywilson 06-13-2021 04:44 PM

My trailer still gets me in areas motels are not available, and you can't beat home cooking vs a restaurant for every meal. And your own toilet?

Since I don't usually use a commercial campground, cost isn't too bad... just the costs of fuel and mileage.

Maybe when a glut in used trailers happens I'll get another one?

lhoover118 06-13-2021 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Old-Biscuit (Post 5784046)
What does he base it on.?
Hear say
Rumor
Wishful thinking
Hope
Paycheck



I see..............
LOTs and LOTS of slightly USED RVs hitting the market by years end
NEW sales falling off


Yep, I see the same.

ArtJoyce 06-13-2021 05:58 PM

I have mixed thoughts. Younger families; it seems its a fad. Around here they make the reservations. If there is any rain in the forecast they don't show and don't cancel reservations. They seem to be buying new TT. These are the same generation that are not overly concerned with corvid. They get on the rv forms and buy every thing that people say is a must have.

Then you have the covid campers. Use to do resorts, hotels, and rent time shares. They are buying large MH and 5er. Now its a glamor thing.

Not sure either are ready to give up their camper.

We not only have 100+ new RV builds. But because of the large demand and high prices for campers a large number of the inactive RV have been sold to user that right now are activity using them.

So I think it will be a few years before they will start selling the RV.

I think we will se a lot of people selling their RV's a year after the year they don't take the RV out.

Inflation normally increase in interest rates are hand and hand. But with the treasurer's debt equal to around the GNP of the US. Our current interest on the national debt is very low, but represents 10% of the national budget. I don't think the fed or the treasurer will do any real increases lets say into to 6+%. Maybe plus 1-2%. At 6% interest on the national debt it would represent close 60% of our current budget. So I don't think we will see the interest rate increase.

THenne1713 06-13-2021 06:00 PM

Problem is, climbing prices for same product= INFLATION= $$= worth LESS; the $600-$800 riding mower now $1600-$2000 today, I hate it... and (I am) expecting worse to come.


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