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plane 06-13-2021 08:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Massparanoia (Post 5784075)
Since the election virus is over, itís all gonna depend on economic recovery. If it booms it booms, if it busts itís gonna crash hard.

I guess I am not as optimistic. There are many factors that I believe may have a negative impact on RV sales and ownership. I think the overall cost is continuing to rise whether it is fuel cost, maintenance cost, camp ground fees as well as inflation and tax increases on the front burner. As interest rates begin to rise which is inevitable at the rate the US is printing money and money gets tighter lets see what happens

PnK 06-13-2021 09:10 PM

That's my thoughts exactly, but I hope it doesn't happen..

Johnynorthla 06-13-2021 09:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Isaac-1 (Post 5784820)
I personally expect to see the RV market crash sooner than later given the way people at least in my area are acting more and more like life as normal every day, seeing people wearing masks is now by far the exception, forget social distancing, people are dining out, staying in motels, etc. The only thing that is not really back to normal yet is international travel and the cruise industry. When those are allowed to go back to normal I suspect we will see some significant promotional rates for cruises and travel packages to try to lure the customers back as soon as possible, though of course some of that infrastructure is gone, cruise ships have been scrapped, resorts shuttered, etc. Combine this with the ever increasing gas prices, lack of camping destinations, etc. and I suspect by the end of the year this boom will be over.

Iím in your camp! You nailed it! Letís visit back to these post when it happens and see who get the stuffed teddy!

mlpeloquin 06-14-2021 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DRM901 (Post 5784179)
Inflation is starting to creep up. That means interest rates will go up, so discretionary spending, like RVs, will go down.

I do agree the day of reckoning is probably 2 years out. Just takes time for the impact to ripple through the economy.

It is not hard to understand. Paying people to stay home better that than to allow them fill 9.5 million job opening is causing businesses to give raises to keep their current employees from jumping ship to competitors. This causes prices to go up, inflation, to cover the cost. The only people that will not have discretionary money to spend will be retirees with fixed income.

LarryinID 06-14-2021 05:59 PM

Opinions are like anuses (keeping it nice): everybody has one.

Idaho didn’t see the run on RVs of other areas because most people in Idaho already had one. I was fortunate to upgrade Nov of 2019 so even with my propensity to get a new RV every three years I’m good till 2023. Finally got this one where I want it.

I haven’t noticed huge differences in MSRPs or offer prices in my area or national sites. At least not on RVs…have seen on pickups.

My guess is that as soon as alternative travel options are fully back those who bought RVs without understanding maintenance or how to use them will start a flood of used relatively new units. That will restore prices on both used and new. Some people might need one more winter to get some of them to fess up that RVing isn’t for them.

If the reports of RV suppliers having supply chain problems are true that should be letting up soon too…but then they’ll need a few months to restore lost production.

Bottom line prediction: all will be back normal in the RV world by next summer.

I mostly boondock so the hordes haven’t bothered me. And snowbirding was helped by lack of Canadians. But had to put off Alaska trip another year thanks to Canada border closing.

LarryinID 06-14-2021 06:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PnK (Post 5790413)
That's my thoughts exactly, but I hope it doesn't happen..

No idea what you are referring to. Please use quote.

dssl 06-16-2021 11:20 AM

Salesman are trying to sell
 
Almost all salesman will tell you whatever they think will get you to buy now. Of course they want you to believe that the marketi will stay hot for a long time and therefore you should buy now since thinvgs won't get any better.

David55 06-17-2021 01:47 PM

Big bolus of new coaches bought means big bolus of lightly used, essentially new coaches hitting the used market shortly thereafter as people have health problems or decide they got into something they didn't have time nor inclination for. Getting ready to pounce . . .

Johnynorthla 06-18-2021 07:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David55 (Post 5795246)
Big bolus of new coaches bought means big bolus of lightly used, essentially new coaches hitting the used market shortly thereafter as people have health problems or decide they got into something they didn't have time nor inclination for. Getting ready to pounce . . .



I totally agee with you. I canít see why some are saying that this will not be the case. Reason 1 will be they donít use them as much as they thought they would. Reason 2 is they didnít realize the amount of work, physically and financially that it takes to keep them on the road. Now letís think further on this; once their one year coach warranty expires, they will have to bare that expense, coupled with the fact that it takes 2 months just to get an appointment at a repair shop or dealer, will not sit well with most first timers!

Dav L 06-20-2021 07:11 AM

and why would the opinion of a Service Advisor be of any value one way or another beyond just another opinion?
If that person really had any insight and acted on it, they would own an index fund instead.

fullmoonguru 06-20-2021 09:13 AM

I'm not an RV industry pro but I DO have a fairly good read on human nature. What's about to happen seems fairly obvious to me.

People who bought RV's during covid were either sudden/recent converts, people who were always mildly or seriously interested, and C19 was their excuse to finally act.

The sudden/recent converts will start selling late this summer/fall. Some will be disillusioned between the lifestyle brochures and reality as previously discussed, some will have had a good time and be happy for the experience, but ready to do other things. Most of these people will be selling older used rigs because that's what they bought.

The mildly/seriously interested folks will start selling as well, though at least a few months behind the sudden/recent converts. Though lot's of them will be selling (especially the mildly interested ones), many of these will be transitioning into a different kind/size/vintage RV now that they've had some experience.

Finally there's another group. Some who have been in the game for a while will be looking to get out. Overcrowded campgrounds, difficult service experiences, parts issues, increasing costs, and especially the value of their rigs starting to come down off good highs - good time to get out.

So I see more used inventory coming on around late August & into fall/winter, more in the spring as those who held on decide it's a good time to sell at the beginning of the season, and even more late next summer & fall (probably peaking here) from people who have taken their final trips or have been paying upkeep on something they haven't used in a while.

Unfortunately for us we can't wait for perfect market timeing to purchase a used class A but we'll be watching closely toward the end of August to see what's happening.

DRM901 06-20-2021 04:08 PM

In the economy, everything that goes up, will go down. Everything that goes down, will go up. Economists (and weathermen) are great at predicting the future, just ask them.

Reminds me of the old joke:
Three economists went out skeet shooting.

First one yells pull. Misses the clay pigeon by 3' on the left.

Second one steps up and yells pull. Misses the clay pigeon by 3' on the right.

They all throw down their guns and start yelling: on average, we hit all the targets!

mwberg 06-20-2021 10:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by garyb1st (Post 5790118)
If memory serves, before the current boom, many were concerned that because of the Covid RVing would decline. It did the just opposite and with all the new RVers, RVing has lost some of its appeal. At least it did for me. The DW thinks we need to adjust our travel style. Not looking forward to a future where reservations need to be made months ahead of time. Hopefully things will equalize in the coming months and we'll get back to normal.

After 7 decades I still don't know what normal is.

Jkjavelin 06-22-2021 12:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mwberg (Post 5799584)
After 7 decades I still don't know what normal is.

^^^The most accurate statement here.


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